Northern lights tour employee instructed to guarantee if auroras will happen or not following customer complaints: 'Tours didn't go out... tourists are leaving 1-star reviews'

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    Green Northern Lights above brightly lit town with snowy mountains in background
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    I analyze atmospheric data for a Northern Lights tour company in Tromsø. My job is forecasting aurora probability so tours know when to go out.
  • 03
    Aurora forecasting isn't exact. I give percentages - 65% chance tonight, 40% tomorrow. Solar wind is unpredictable, clouds move fast up here, conditions change.
  • 04
    That's just how it works. Owner started getting complaints that tourists booked tours on "maybe" nights and saw nothing.
  • 05
    He decided I needed to give "definitive predictions" - yes aurora tonight or no aurora tonight.
  • 06
    No percentages. I said that's not how atmospheric science works. He said customers want certainty and I need to provide it or he'd find someone who would.
  • 07
    Okay. I started giving binary predictions. Yes or no. Based on whether conditions were above 50% probability or below it.
  • 08
    First week, I said "yes" for Tuesday. Clouds rolled in at the last second, no visibility.
  • 09
    Forty angry tourists, all demanding refunds because | "promised" aurora. Thursday I said "no." Tours didn't go out.
  • 10
    Aurora showed up - massive display, best of the month. Social media exploded with people posting photos from the fjord while our customers sat in hotels.
  • 11
    I predicted "yes" for Saturday. Weak aurora, barely visible. Not the dramatic show people expected from a "definitive yes." More complaints.
  • 12
    Owner said I'm doing it wrong. I said I'm doing exactly what he asked - giving definitive predictions instead of probabilities.
  • 13
    He said I should use "judgment." I said judgment is literally what the percentages were. Three tour cancellations this month.
  • 14
    He's trying to blame my forecasting. I've got emails where he specifically demanded yes/no answers only.
  • 15
    Weather doesn't work in certainties. I tried to tell him that. Now tourists are leaving one-star reviews and he's talking about hiring a "more confident" analyst.
  • 16
    I miss giving probabilities.
  • 17
    Tree branches with stripes of green and red Northern lights across starry sky in Tromsø, Norway

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